A nationwide survey by UK charity National Churches Trust has raised concerns that as many as 2,000 churches across the UK could close inside the subsequent five years.
The charity, which works to help and preserve historic church buildings, gathered 3,600 responses from congregations in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland in May and June.
The findings, published within the October edition of Future First, reveal that while most congregations remain optimistic in regards to the way forward for their buildings, a small but significant proportion fear closure is imminent.
According to the survey, nearly 70% of respondents are confident their church will still be open for worship in 2030, with an additional 26% saying it’s “probably” secure.
However, 5% said they were unsure their church could survive, a figure which, if applied nationally, would amount to around one in every 20 congregations shutting their doors.
Churches in rural areas emerged as essentially the most vulnerable, with 7% of respondents from countryside locations anticipating closure.
If borne out, this might equate to around 900 rural churches closing in the subsequent five years.
The survey also highlighted denominational differences, with Methodists being essentially the most uncertain and 12% of them predicting their church may close by 2030. Presbyterians were next, with 9% expressing doubt.
Baptists and Independents showed smaller but notable levels of concern, while Anglicans – who represent the most important share of congregations – reported a lower closure risk of 4%.
Despite the smaller percentage, the sheer variety of Anglican churches means this might still translate to almost 700 closures, including around 40 in Wales.
Listed status also appears to play a job in confidence levels.
Congregations worshipping in historic Grade I listed churches were more prone to consider their buildings would remain open in comparison with those in unlisted properties.
Cathedrals, meanwhile, expressed complete certainty that they might still be operating in 2030.
Overall, the research suggests that while most church buildings are expected to stay open, the combined effect of rural decline, denominational pressures, and financial challenges could see some 2,000 closures in the approaching years.
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