The death of Pope Francis has set in motion a centuries-old ritual involving sacred oaths, performed by the cardinals who will elect his successor.
The technique of electing a recent Pope is shrouded in secrecy, with cardinals forbidden from communicating with the skin world what happens within the conclave, which takes place inside the frescoed partitions of the Sistine Chapel.
The pontiff’s age, along together with his health concerns in recent times – including his recent complex lung infection – led to questions being asked well before his death about who would succeed him.
As is all the time the case, within the months and years prior to the death of a pope, a collection of candidates often known as papabile emerge because the frontrunners to grow to be the brand new leader of the Catholic Church.
What happens now?
The Vatican will convene a papal conclave, by which the College of Cardinals comes together to elect the Church’s next head.
The rules of the conclave, as of twenty-two January 2025, state that of the 252 cardinals, 138 qualify as electors. Only those under the age of 80 may participate in the key ballot within the Sistine Chapel.
Four rounds of voting happen every single day until a candidate receives two-thirds of the vote, in a process that typically lasts around 15 to twenty days, based on the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops.
The belief is that the Holy Spirit will move the conclave to search out the worthy successor to St Peter.
There are already quite a lot of well-known cardinals whose names have been informally recommend to fill the role. In 2020, Edward Pentin released an authoritative book on the subject, titled The Next Pope: The Leading Cardinal Candidates.
But candidates often known as papabile have risen and fallen even for the reason that publication of that book. Favourites entering the conclave rarely emerge as Pope, which has spawned the Italian adage: “Enter the conclave as Pope and leave as a cardinal.”
In fact, of the last six conclaves only Pope Benedict in 2005 would emerge as Pope having entered because the favourite. So many can be the compromise candidates as a possible successor to Francis.
The favourites
Cardinal Pietro Parolin
Cardinal Parolin is now considered “the predominant candidate”, a powerful favourite to be the subsequent Pope but “not a certainty”.
As the Vatican’s secretary of state since 2013, 70-year-old Cardinal Parolin, from Veneto, is the highest-ranking member of the electing conclave. Rather than adhering to “left” or “right” political leanings, Cardinal Parolin has long been considered a smart, moderate figure inside the Church.
Most recently, Cardinal Parolin gave an interview with Italian newspaper L’Eco di Bergamo by which he commented on quite a lot of geopolitical issues.
He said: “Everyone can contribute to peace, but solutions mustn’t ever be pursued through unilateral impositions that risk trampling on the rights of entire peoples, otherwise there won’t ever be a just and lasting peace.”
A well placed Vatican insider told The Independent: “It is difficult to know if he [Parolin] really is the predominant candidate since the group of cardinals are very difficult to read. They are a really strange bunch they usually don’t really know each other.
“What they see as candidate can be quite different to what the media say.
“Parolin is a really secure bet because all of them know him. He was nice to everyone and never had conflicts with anyone. He has been working within the Vatican for greater than 10 years and knows how it really works.”
Cardinal Peter Erdo
As a former president of the Council of the Bishops’ Conferences of Europe, Cardinal Erdo is understood for being a devout Marian, meaning he devotes his practices to Mary, mother of Jesus.
He is the leading candidate on the conservative wing of the Church, and it is believed he may very well be the predominant challenger to Cardinal Parolin within the early conclave votes.
The 72-year-old Hungarian has famously been a more conservative voice inside the Church, having opposed the practice of divorced or remarried Catholics receiving Holy Communion attributable to his belief within the insolubility of marriage.
He has also compared the act of taking in refugees to human trafficking. Erdo was made a cardinal in 2003 by Pope John Paul II.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle
As the seventh Filipino to grow to be a cardinal, Cardinal Tagle could be the primary Asian pope. The 67-year-old currently serves because the pro-prefect for the Section of First Evangelisation of the Dicastery for Evangelisation, having been made a cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI. He is probably the most liberal candidate among the many frontrunners and sometimes dubbed “Francis 2” in his similarities to the late Pope.
Cardinal Tagle has typically shown more left-leaning politics, much like those of Pope Francis, and has criticised the Church’s attitude and language towards gay people, single moms, and divorced or remarried Catholics.
He said in 2015: “The harsh words that were used up to now to consult with gays and divorced and separated people, the unwed moms [and so on], up to now they were quite severe. Many individuals who belonged to those groups were branded and that led to their isolation from the broader society.”
However, some Vatican insiders query whether he’s a candidate who’s more outstanding in media coverage with less real support amongst cardinals who will ultimately determine.
Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa
The Patriarch of Jerusalem is just 60 and far younger than all the opposite contenders but has gone from a left field option within the conclave to one in all the favourites. It could also be by the point the conclave begins that he has grow to be one in all the more serious contenders.
Essentially, it his role as leader of the Catholics within the Holy Land at a time when Middle East events in Israel and Gaza are on the forefront of world and Church politics.
Choosing Pizzaballa could be a major geopolitical statement by the Church, especially at a time it has been highly critical of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.
However, Pizzaballa has not taken sides as others have done. He was one in all the primary to sentence Hamas for the 7 October attacks on Israel and offered himself in exchange for Israeli children taken as hostages by the Palestinian terrorists.
As well as being a heroic figure with a keen ability as a diplomat he can be a number one Biblical scholar. Pope Francis was known to highly respect him and called him almost each day.
He will almost definitely get votes within the conclave and if he doesn’t emerge this time due to his relatively young age he can be a contender again in the long run.
Strong contenders
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi
Considered to be a favorite of Pope Francis, Cardinal Zuppi has been president of the Episcopal Conference of Italy since May 2022.
The 69-year-old was made a cardinal by Francis in 2019 and has since been sent on quite a lot of global trips. He went on a peace mission to Ukraine where he met president Volodymyr Zelensky, but not Russia’s Vladimir Putin, and he went to the United States to satisfy the then president Joe Biden.
Prior to being a cardinal, Mr Zuppi shared his positive view of the LGBT+ community when he wrote in an essay in James Martin’s 2018 book Building a Bridge (Un ponte da Costruire) that it could be “useful for encouraging dialogue, in addition to reciprocal knowledge and understanding” to adopt a recent pastoral approach towards “our LGBT brothers and sisters”.
Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke
Regarded by critics as an outspoken traditionalist, Cardinal Burke, born in Wisconsin, was made a cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI in 2010.
He has publicly clashed with Pope Francis’s more liberal philosophies, particularly regarding the latter’s willingness to permit divorced and remarried couples to receive the Eucharist. He has also called the Church’s recent language around artificial contraception, civil marriage and gay people “objectionable”.
He previously said that Catholic politicians who support legalised abortion, reminiscent of Mr Biden, shouldn’t receive the Eucharist.
Cardinal Mario Grech
A former conservative, the Maltese Cardinal Mario Grech has emerged as probably probably the most progressive option for the conclave to contemplate.
The 68-year-old is the the one leading Church figure to try to succeed in out to LGBT+ communities and reconsider doctrine on a posh issue.
Speaking to the Synod in October 2014, Grech said that “the doctrine of the religion is able to progressively acquiring a greater depth” and that addressing people in complex familial relations, or homosexuals or parents of homosexuals, “It is essential to learn to talk that language which is understood to contemporary human beings and who acknowledge it as a way of conveying the reality and the charity of the Gospel.”
A favorite of Pope Francis’, Grech was appointed to the influential role of Secretary General of the Synod of Bishops.
Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline
The Archbishop of Marseille is a reputation which have gathered traction and apparently some support. While he was not previously described as papabile, he has emerged as a serious contender amongst moderates since Pope Francis’ death.
The 66-year-old French prelate originates from the old French Algeria colony but spent much of his life in Marseille.
The cardinal has been described as a “relatively liberal figure, but one inclined to consensus” by the College of Cardinals Report website. It makes him a candidate who could potentially reach out to different factions.
Cardinal Aveline has also repeatedly been portrayed within the French press as Pope Francis’ favorite prelate, and is claimed to be probably the most “Bergoglian” (in reference to Francis’ surname) of France’s bishops.
Out of Africa
Cardinal Peter Turkson
The Ghanaian prelate, 76, has emerged as one in all the leading papabile in recent months and could be the primary African pope since Pope Gelasius I within the fifth century.
Cardinal Turkson was a candidate in 2013, but now has more support than when Pope Francis was elected within the last conclave.
With Catholicism growing in Africa and declining in European and other Western countries, there may be a sense that its centre of gravity is shifting to the developing world.
Cardinal Turkson is politically on the left, and has led for the Church on social justice issues, been a critic of neoliberal capitalism and worked for peace.
However, theologically he could be very conservative, and was a number one voice against using condoms despite the Aids pandemic in Africa. He also defended a more hardline view on homosexuality.
Cardinal Robert Sarah
Another African papabile is Cardinal Robert Sarah of Guinea. The 79-year-old conservative was an ally of the previous pope, Benedict, and served as his president of the Pontifical Council.
Cardinal Sarah has been a number one player within the Vatican since 2001, and carries a whole lot of experience through various roles within the Church’s institutions. Some thought that his best opportunity got here in 2013, when Pope Francis emerged because the selection of the cardinals as an alternative.
Cardinal Sarah is a traditionalist and a conservative, who has suggested that a few of the reforms brought in by the Second Vatican Council to modernise the Church within the Sixties are usually not obligatory. He could be very anti-LGBT+ and has opposed attempts to recognise homosexuality in various African countries.
One of his strengths is that he has a deeper understanding and respect for Islam, as a cardinal from a rustic where the population is split between the 2 religions. He has opposed attacks by the West on Muslim countries reminiscent of Iraq. He once noted: “The Islam in my country is a fraternal, peaceful religion.”
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu
Completing the African contingent is Archbishop of Kinshasa and head of the Church within the Democratic Republic of Congo. At 65 he’s one in all the younger papabile but is a reputation rising on various lists as a possible successor to Francis.
Besunga has played a key role within the spread of Catholicism in Africa and won admirers for standing as much as the DRC government who ordered for him to be investigated for sedition.
But like the opposite African cardinals he’s a conservative and hit international prominence together with his opposition to blessings of same sex unions.
Also within the running
Cardinal Reinhard Marx
Could the Catholic church take care of a dose of “Marxism”? The 71-year-old Archbishop of Munich and Freising is a divisive figure who, like his namesake Karl, is a powerful critic of capitalism.
Form a few years he was a powerful ally of Pope Francis from the liberal wing of the church and has been rather more progressive on LGBT+ issues than most. However, he was removed Francis’ council of cardinals in May 2023, falling out of favour having been a key adviser.
Added to that in 2021 he offered his resignation for failing to take care of historic abuse within the Church, although this was rejected on the time.
Cardinal Marx has not been afraid of getting involved in politics and even criticised Brexit despite the fact that he insisted the 2016 vote needs to be respected.
He has experience with the inner workings of the Vatican not least its funds having been on the Council for the Economy when the Holy See had a deficit.
He has been a outstanding figure at international events including presiding over the funeral of former German football captain and manager Franz Beckenbauer.
But in some ways he’s the Pope probably to bring the Church into the twenty first century but one whose time could have passed.
Cardinal Angelo Scola
The former Archbishop of Milan is the leading name of 4 Italian cardinals who’re seen as potential stop gap candidates if the conclave’s factions cannot come to agreement over the leading contenders.
At 83 Scola could be the oldest cardinal elected as Pope since Clement X in 1670 and it could be hoped he could provide regular but uncontroversial leadership to provide the church respiration space to choose which direction to soak up the long run.
However, last time cardinals took this secure stop gap option they elected the 77-year-old John XXIII in 1958 who turned out to be some of the radical and consequential popes in history. He launched the Second Vatican Council to modernise the church and changing Catholicism endlessly.
Cardinal Wim Eijk
The Archbishop of Utrecht, 71, has been one in all the most important conservative critics of Pope Francis’ papacy. A medical doctor by training he’s unusual among the many cardinals in having a scientific background but has been a fierce opponent of LGBT+ rights.
In 2015 he got here to public attention for removing a parish treasurer from their position because they were transgender.
He was also highly critical of ecumenical attempts to succeed in out to other Christian denominations. In 2018 he condemned Pope Francis for failing to completely rule out a German proposal to permit Protestants to take the eucharist.
Cardinal Robert Prevost
While many observers think that cardinals will revert to a European Pope after the Francis experiment, in the event that they do return to the Americas then the 69-year-old Prefect of the Dicastery for Bishop can be a reputation who’s discussed.
Cardinal Robert Prevost hails from Chicago which is the most important Archdiocese in North America and famously turns the river green on St Patrick’s day.
He was only promoted to his influential role within the Vatican in 2023 and made a cardinal-bishop in February this yr.
A member of the influential Augustinian order his predominant appeal could also be that he’s an authority in canon law. There have been concerns over Francis that the Church moved away from a reliance on canon law and the normal institutions. This makes Prevost a compromise candidate for Francis inspired reformers and people who want some traditional order restored.
Cardinal Christoph Schönborn
The 80-year-old Archbishop emeritus of Vienna has just retired from his roles and won’t get a vote within the conclave due to his age.
Nevertheless as a figure who was respected across different factions Cardinal Schönborn could also be a reputation still in contention.
Most of all he won respect for being one in all the stronger voices in coping with the historic sexual abuse within the Church.
In May 2010 Schönborn told the Austrian Catholic news agency Kathpress: “The days of cover-up are over. For a protracted while the Church’s principle of forgiveness was falsely interpreted and was in favour of those responsible and never the victims.”
He has though been a powerful opponent to Church reform not least in his fight with a dissident priest movement in Austria which was made up of around 10 per cent of its priests and demanded radical changes. This included allowing priests to marry, in addition to allowing divorced Catholics and non-Catholic Christians to receive communion.
Despite meeting with the group often known as Pfarrer Initiative in June 2012 the Austrian prelate publicly reaffirmed the official position of the Vatican on the problems raised by the dissident group and directed that no priest expressing support for the “Call to Disobedience” be allowed to carry any administrative post within the Austrian Catholic Church.
Cardinal Marc Ouellet
The Canadian cardinal from Quebec speaks seven languages fluently. At 80, he’s now too old to vote within the conclave, although he stays a candidate for the papacy.
Cardinal Ouellet’s hopes, though, have been hit by allegations that emerged in August 2022, when a lawsuit involving an unnamed woman was filed against him.
Prior to that he had been one in all the leading voices for change within the Church within the wake of the sexual abuse scandal involving priests.
In 2018, he said: “We will need more participation of girls within the formation of priests, in teaching, within the discernment of candidates and their emotional balance.”
Cardinal Vincent Nichols
The 79-year-old has been head of the Catholic Church in England and Wales since 2009, and is just young enough to vote on this conclave because he doesn’t turn 80 until November.
Cardinal Nichols is seen as a gentle, middle-of-the-road candidate, and will potentially emerge as a compromise figure if there may be a standoff between the factions inside the conclave.
The English cardinal, originally from Crosby in Lancashire, could be the primary British pope since Adrian IV in 1154.
He has rigorously picked his battles on social issues within the UK, steering clear of interventions within the LGBT+ debates, but has launched a powerful fight against the assisted dying bill currently being debated in parliament.
That said, he has not been named as one in all the papabile, and could be a longshot for the throne of St Peter. Nevertheless, non-papabile have been elected Pope on eight occasions, including John XXIII, who initiated the Second Vatican Council, and John Paul II.
Cardinal Timothy Radcliffe
One underrated name is Dominican friar Timothy Radcliffe, 79, who is far loved by many Catholics for his spiritual writings. He was a frequent adviser to Pope Francis.
He was only made a cardinal in October last yr and is a Master Emeritus of Order of Preachers.
Like Vincent Nichols he is extremely unlikely to win any votes within the conclave but can’t be completely ruled out.
Cardinal Arthur Roche
At 74 Arthur Roche is the youngest of the British cardinals. The former bishop of Leeds now heads up a Vatican department called Divine Worship where he has grow to be a controversial figure blamed for the suppression of the normal Latin mass.
Roche is a Vatican reformer who was near Francis and is more prone to be an influencer within the election than a candidate.
Cardinal Michael Fitzgerald
Much respected by Pope Francis for his work on interfaith dialogue especially with Muslims, Cardinal Michael Fitzgerald is a highly experienced diplomat.
However, at 87 he won’t have a vote within the conclave and can be considered to be too old to succeed Francis.
The stand-in
Cardinal Kevin Farrell
Currently, Cardinal Kevin Farrell, an Irish born American who announced Pope Francis’ death to the world, is effectively standing in as temporary administrative head of the church in his role as Camerlengo of the Holy Roman Church.
The 77-year-old can’t be completely ruled out as a successor but he is just not considered to be a papabile and there are a protracted list of contenders ahead of him.
Added to that his conservative views haven’t seen him draw back from diplomatic controversy. In 2018 he infamously prevented the then Irish president Mary McAleese, a supporter of girls’s ordination and same-sex marriage, from speaking at a Vatican conference on Women within the Catholic Church.
