Militant Islamists groups have expanded their presence in Africa and greater than doubled fatalities linked to violent activities in specific regions within the continent in response to a study by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS). In the yr ending June 30, 10 militant Islamist groups have been answerable for the death of twenty-two,307 people, a majority of them Christians in West, East and Central Africa.
The evaluation by the middle shows that the groups have intensified their violent, deadly means since 2023, representing a 60 percent increase from the 2020-2022 period. “Nearly half of the fatalities (10,685) up to now yr have been within the Sahel,” an enormous region covering 10 countries equivalent to Mali, Chad, Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Cameroon.
“Along with the Lake Chad Basin, these three regions (including Somalia) account for 99 percent of the militant Islamist-linked fatalities in Africa the past yr,” stated the study, which also mapped how the militant groups have expanded their territorial hold within the continent. “Across Africa, an estimated 950,000 square kilometres (367,000 square miles) of populated territories are outside government control because of militant Islamist insurgencies. This is such as the scale of Tanzania.”
Over the last decade, noted the study, militant Islamist groups have been answerable for over 150,000 deaths. The Al Shabaab in Somalia and JNIM (Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin) affiliate groups within the Sahel have intensified their activities from 2022 within the respective regions resulting in fatalities of over 49,000 in each of the 2 regions within the last decade. The Lake Chad Basin countries have suffered an estimated 39,000 fatalities over this timeframe.
The political instability within the Sahel region has been a serious contributor to the spike in fatalities linked to militant groups. The region has averaged 10,500 annual deaths during the last three years in comparison with 4,900 within the previous period between 2020 and 2023, a seven-fold increase since 2019.
“The pace and scale of violence within the Sahel is probably going even higher than reported, provided that the military juntas that seized power in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have restricted media access throughout the region, which is the essential source of conflict data,” states the study that was published on July 28.
The JNIM network with as much as 7,000 militants is answerable for over 80 percent of fatalities within the Sahel, particularly in north, central and southern Mali and southern Burkina Faso. The JNIM network now occupies over half of Burkina Faso. The groups have currently increased the use of social media, drones and AI to recruit fighters, spread propaganda and counter military forces in Nigeria, Mali and Burkina Faso.
In Mali, JNIM has shared videos of alleged abuses by security forces targeting the Fulani community with the aim of portraying “itself as a defender of marginalized populations.” Government forces have accused the community of supporting the militants with the study linking 17,700 civilian fatalities to government and allied forces.
Increased attacks by the Al Shabaab domiciled in Somalia has led to six,224 fatalities in 2024/2025. The group’s financial muscle – drawn from extortion, road tolls and piracy – is estimated at $200 million, rivalling Somalia’s internal revenue, and making it easier for the group to recruit fighters, now estimated at between 7,000 and 12,000. A specific area of concern is the expansion of Islamic State in Somalia (ISS) which the U.N. reports is now the executive and financial headquarters for ISIS global.
The study comes amidst an attack on Christians in a church in Komanda city in eastern DRC by the Allied Democratic Forces, an militant group affiliated to ISIL/ISIS. The militant group took responsibility for 43 worshippers who were killed during an evening mass, and burned shops and houses. The group also claimed responsibility for the early-July attack that claimed the lives of 66 people in Ituri province, near the border with Uganda.
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