One of Pope Francis’ enduring legacies was that he greatly expanded the variety of cardinals who will elect his successor, naming “princes of the church” from faraway countries that had never had one before.
That legacy is now throwing a wrench in the normal sport of speculating in regards to the next pope, since these far-flung cardinals do not know each other well and haven’t coalesced into clear voting blocs going into the conclave, the centuries-old ritual to elect a latest pope.
As a result, all that is definite in regards to the upcoming conclave is that there is no such thing as a certainty.
As the Oscar-nominated film “Conclave” made clear, the election of a pope is a Hollywood-worthy drama steeped in mystery, secrecy and faith. But real-world politics and private calculations come into play and can weigh on the 130-plus cardinals once they enter the Sistine Chapel to forged their ballots.
What will the cardinals be on the lookout for?
No date has yet been set for the conclave, nevertheless it must start by May 10. After Francis’ funeral Saturday, the cardinals who’ve flocked to Rome will meet commonly this week, sizing each other up as they discuss the needs of the 1.4 billion-strong Catholic Church following Francis’ revolutionary papacy.
Francis’ 12-year pontificate was characterised by a spotlight away from doctrinaire rules to creating the church more inclusive and welcoming. For progressives, it was a refocusing of mission back to the Gospel’s mandate to take care of poor people and feed the hungry. For conservatives, Francis sowed confusion by introducing wiggle room in hot-button cultural issues akin to the church’s teaching on marriage and homosexuality.
As a result, the cardinals face a fundamental decision when on the lookout for a successor: Does the church need someone to proceed Francis’ legacy, specializing in the marginalized as Jesus did? Or does it need a course correction to rebuild unity, after Francis’ radical reforms alienated some?
One query is whether or not the conservative wing, which counts cardinals from Africa, Eastern Europe and a part of the U.S., has enough votes to swing the pendulum back to the doctrinaire papacies of St. John Paul II and Pope Benedict XVI.
Beyond that, the cardinals will consider more practical matters: Pick someone in his 60s and you would possibly have a pope for 20-plus years, for higher or worse. Pick a pope from where the church is alive and growing – Asia or Africa – and you would possibly bring more upheaval to the Vatican’s Italian-heavy bureaucracy that remains to be smarting from the Argentine pope’s go-it-alone style.
Pick a comparatively unknown pope and he’s just that, unknown.
Who are the contenders?
Chatbots and bookmakers’ predictions aside, it’s really anyone’s guess, said Alberto Melloni, a church historian.
“They barely know one another,” Melloni said, recalling that in his last batch of cardinals alone, in December, Francis added 20 latest voters to the conclave. These cardinals hailed from Algeria, Argentina and Australia and points in between, and could have first met the day they got their red hats.
Of course there are some leading candidates. They stand out as front-runners just because they’re probably the most well-known.
– Cardinal Pietro Parolin is a number one Italian, by nature of his office: He was Francis’ secretary of state, the Vatican No. 2, so known to each cardinal within the Sistine Chapel.
– The top candidate to be history’s first Asian pope can also be on everyone’s short list because he’s got a similarly high-profile Vatican job: Filippino Cardinal Luis Tagle, who heads the Vatican’s evangelization office liable for the Catholic Church in much of the developing world.
– A number one candidate representing more of the conservative wing of the church is Hungarian Cardinal Erdo, 72, the archbishop of Budapest.
“You don’t see on this moment real front-runners, because to be a front-runner, you wish already to have behind you a packet of votes,” said longtime Vatican watcher Marco Politi, whose upcoming book “The Unfinished” explores Francis’ unfinished business.
Kingmakers expected to have a giant role
Because the cardinals don’t know one another well, nobody is seen to have secured the packet of votes, suggesting it would take several rounds of voting to get a two-thirds majority.
Melloni said cardinals should not be afraid to let the conclave drag on, even when it sends a message of division as black smoke day after day signals a scarcity of consensus.
“Certainly the church is split. The problem is to seek out the one who unites, not pretend that it’s not divided,” Melloni said.
The lack of front-runners has made the “kingmakers” more necessary on this conclave.
These are the influential figures who themselves will not be considered “papabile” but can rally votes from other cardinals in a selected direction. They include New York Cardinal Timothy Dolan, German Cardinal Reinhard Marx and Congolese Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, the Franciscan archbishop of Kinshasa who heads the African bishops’ conference.
Just because they were named by Francis …
While 108 of the voting-age cardinals were created by Francis, they might not necessarily follow his mercy-over-morals line: Some may support Francis’ call for the church to be more inclusive, but oppose women priests, Politi said.
“Maybe they agree with the problem of giving Communion to divorced and remarried people, but they don’t wish to bless a homosexual couple,” he said. “So this makes this conclave very difficult.”
Marx said the worldwide outpouring of grief after Francis’ death shows support for a pope who will proceed his ministry specializing in people who find themselves marginalized and against war.
“People long for a voice that goes beyond national interests, beyond polarizations, beyond discussion about who overwhelms whom and who defeats whom,” Marx told reporters after the funeral.
Some outstanding questions
One query is whether or not Cardinal Angelo Becciu, once one of the crucial powerful cardinals on the Vatican, can be allowed to forged a vote.
Francis in 2020 forced Becciu to resign and relinquish his rights and privileges as a cardinal over alleged financial misconduct. The Sardinian prelate was later convicted of finance-related crimes by the Vatican criminal tribunal.
He is appealing the convictions and has participated in Vatican events since his downfall. At 76, he’s under the voting age limit of 80. However, official Vatican statistics list him as a “non elector.” He and his supporters maintain that he didn’t lose his primary duty of electing a pope.
Another query is where the cardinals will sleep.
The Vatican’s Domus Santa Marta hotel was in-built 1996 specifically to deal with cardinals during a conclave, in order that they could all be in a single place and sequestered.
At the time, St. John Paul II had decreed that there could only be 120 cardinal electors who could take part in a conclave, and the hotel was built to accommodate their numbers. But Francis and his predecessors commonly breached the 120-man threshold and the electors now number 135.
Also, Room No. 201, where Francis selected to live after his 2013 election, is under seal and must remain so until a latest pope is elected.
Asked if the cardinals can be asked to double-up in hotel rooms, Vatican spokesman Matteo Bruni noted that such accommodations can be fitting.
“It’s a fantastic opportunity to create community,” Bruni said.
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