A possible by-election following Peter Bone’s suspension is prone to be “difficult” for the Conservatives, the Deputy Prime Minister has admitted.
But Oliver Dowden denied that the Tories were admitting defeat in a contest where they might be defending a majority of 18,500.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, asked on Thursday in regards to the prospect of a recent electoral test, said by-elections were “at all times difficult for incumbent governments”.
The Commons on Wednesday approved a six-week suspension for Mr Bone, the MP for Wellingborough, after an independent investigation upheld counts of bullying and sexual misconduct against him regarding a staff member.
A recall petition will probably be held which is able to trigger a by-election if signed by 10% of voters in his Northamptonshire constituency.
There is a suggestion that Mr Bone, who was stripped of the Tory whip after a report into his conduct was made public, was out campaigning with party activists on the day MPs ratified his suspension.
A tweet from Helen Harrison, a Conservative councillor on North Northamptonshire Council, tweeted an image of herself with the veteran MP, saying it was “lovely to be out” with Mr Bone leafleting for an area candidate.
The Conservative Party has been approached for comment.
Mr Bone has held Wellingborough for the Conservatives since 2005 and the five-figure majority he secured on the last general election is smaller than the majorities the Tories had held in each Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire in 2019.
Both fell to Labour in by-elections last week, with Sir Keir Starmer’s party recording a 22 point swing towards it within the Tamworth victory.
Mr Dowden, asked whether the Tories were concerned in regards to the prospect of one other by-election, told Sky News: “We will not be in a situation straight away that there may be going to be a by-election.
Any by-election for a government that has been in power for 13 years is at all times going to be difficult
Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden
“That is as much as the people of Peter Bone’s constituency, and in fact any by-election for a government that has been in power for 13 years is at all times going to be difficult.
“But if there may be a by-election, and it’s a really big ‘if’, then we are going to exit and make our case.”
Asked whether the Government thought it could be defeated, Mr Dowden replied: “No, I’m not saying we’re going to lose it in any respect — I’m saying that we are going to go on the market and make our case very robustly.
“I believe when you take a look at what Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister said at party conference, I believe he has set out a transparent vision for where he desires to take the country and we will probably be very proud to make that case.”
In a later interview, he suggested by-election swings are rarely replicated at general elections.
The former Tory Party chairman told LBC he took by-election results and opinion polls with a “little bit of a pinch of salt”, saying: “They are expressing people’s views on the federal government that has been in power for a time frame.
“When it involves the overall election, there may be a alternative. And there are only two individuals who may be prime minister — Rishi Sunak or Keir Starmer, and I’m confident each within the vision Rishi Sunak set in and out the leadership he’s able to giving.”
He was asked whether recent by-election losses made him nervous about his 21,000 majority in his own Hertsmere constituency.
The Deputy Prime Minister replied: “You name a by-election swing that has taken place 18 months to a yr before an election that has been replicated in that general election — you realize that will not be going to be the case.”
Mr Bone was found to have “committed many varied acts of bullying and one act of sexual misconduct” against a staff member in 2012 and 2013.
The MP said the allegations were “false and unfaithful” and “without foundation” last week, but he was kicked out of the Tory parliamentary party the subsequent day.
Parliament’s Independent Expert Panel upheld an earlier investigation that found he broke the MPs’ code of conduct on 4 counts of bullying and one among sexual misconduct.
He “verbally belittled, ridiculed, abused and humiliated” the worker and “repeatedly physically struck and threw things” at him.
Mr Bone was found to have indecently exposed himself to the complainant in the lavatory of a hotel room during a piece trip to Madrid.
He also imposed an “unwanted and humiliating ritual” on the person by forcing him to take a seat along with his hands in his lap when the MP was unhappy along with his work, the investigation found.
The complainant on the centre of the case has told the BBC it was a “horrid, brutal, dark experience that left me a broken shell of the young man I once was”.
Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle is searching for procedural advice after Tory former minister Liam Fox raised concerns of a possible contempt of Parliament attributable to the BBC interview.
