This is a giant yr for elections. Already the largest electorate on the planet, that of India, has chosen to stick with its current leader. The election within the UK appears to be stumbling towards a foregone conclusion. And the unbelievable alternative the American electorate must make will come to a head in November. But last week it was the turn of the 400 million voters within the European Union and the outcomes were revealing.
There was a general move towards the best, aside from the Scandinavian countries. While the centre right held on – and even gained a number of seats – the centre left and the Greens took a battering. The Greens lost 20 seats, the ‘Renew’ centre left grouping lost 23. Meanwhile Meloni in Italy cemented her power and demonstrated her increasing leadership in Europe by an astonishing result.
In Germany the AFD, despite a disastrous campaign wherein they were disowned by Marie Le Pens’ National Rally as being too extreme, got here second. The governing party, Olaf Scholt’s SPD, only got 13.9% of the vote – their worst result since 1949. In Austria, the right-wing Freedom Party won, despite only being formed during Covid as a response to lockdown measures.
But it was the lead to France which had essentially the most impact. Le Pen’s RN got 31.47% of the vote, greater than double the results of Macron’s party coming in second with a mere 14.56%. As a result, Macron pushed the ‘nuclear’ button and dissolved parliament, setting latest elections for the start of July. His job as president shouldn’t be up for grabs but he appears to be gambling that when faced with a alternative of the right-wing FN or his centrist party – in a parliament where the outcomes matter because, unlike the EU, the French parliament has real power – the French electorate will come to heel.
There are 4 major lessons to be learned:
1. Immigration, Net Zero and progressive ‘woke’ policies are an actual vote loser for many individuals. The lack of real debate and the marginalisation of anyone who questions the self-evidently ‘correct’ views, has pushed many to the margins.
2. Religion – and particularly Islam – has change into a serious issue. The query of whether Islamic political theology is compatible with Western liberal democracies based on Christianity is one which has yet to be answered.
3. Young persons are basically moving more towards the best. In one sense this was really surprising. The general assumption has been that the younger you’re the more likely you’re to vote for Green/Left/Progressive parties. It was on that basis that the SPD and Greens in Germany lowered the voting age to 16. The youth rewarded them with 17% of under 24 yr olds, and a majority of 24 to 30 yr olds voting for the AFD. In France 32% of 18 to 34-year-olds voted for the RN – greater than double that of 2019. But when you consider it, a youth rebel against the progressive establishment shouldn’t be that surprising. Around 50% of young people don’t go to school and should not subject to the indoctrination that has now change into mainstream. Plus, young people rebel. To be Green and Progressive is the Establishment position. To be right wing is to be a rebel now.
4. Democracy is under threat. Those on the progressive left would entirely agree with this statement, but they don’t realise that they’re as much a serious threat to democracy because the far right. Why? Firstly, because they make the harmful assumption that democracy is under threat because people voted for parties the left don’t like. That is democracy. When you threaten to ban groups or limit free speech (for instance banning Tik Tok or ‘misinformation’), with a purpose to get the result you would like, that’s the actual threat to democracy. It is interesting that the BBC for instance frequently refers to Le Pen’s RN as far right, or extreme right, but never refers to the novel left-wing La France Insoumise (LFI), who gained almost 10% as far left. They cannot even bring themselves to say that in regards to the Communists! When you’ve such bias within the media, academic and political classes, it’s the far right who profit – because people think that if wanting less immigration, less woke policies, and supporting traditional marriage makes them far right, then they could as well support parties which make the most of that.
Democracy can also be under threat in one other way. The EU elections are very unusual. They are for a parliament which has very limited power. It is the one democratic parliament on the planet which doesn’t have the ability to initiate its own laws. That is why many regard the EU elections as the largest opinion poll on the planet. The EU Commissioners are the individuals who have the actual power. Given that they’re appointed by national governments it’s assumed that the democratic control comes through them. But the difficulty is that no EU government would dare go against the Commission – they may not survive.
The European Union is a supranational body, not a set of independent nation states. In effect when a nation state joins the EU it gives up a few of its national sovereignty to what is actually a bureaucratic technocracy. The EU faces economic stagnation, a growing militarisation in the sunshine of the Russia/Ukraine war, a disenfranchisement and disillusion amongst many individuals (only 50% of individuals hassle to vote); the increasing costs of Net Zero; the growing immigrant crisis and the query of how Islam matches right into a post-Christian Europe.
These last elections show us that the people of Europe are unhappy with the present situation. They won’t change anything. The basic structure of the EU was designed to forestall such ‘populist’ movements (what some might call democracy). From a Christian perspective the best change that Europe needs is a revival of important Christianity. The ultimate alternative shouldn’t be between right and left, democracy or technocracy, progressivism or conservatism, free markets or big government. The real alternative is whether or not Europe goes to regress to paganism, change into an Islamic theocracy, or return to its Christian roots. May the Lord show mercy and shine his light within the darkness.
David Robertson is the minister of Scots Kirk Presbyterian Church in Newcastle, New South Wales. He blogs at The Wee Flea.
