In the lead-up to South Carolina’s primary contest on Saturday, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley held a news conference to inform supporters that she’s “not going anywhere” and is committed to offering voters a substitute for former president Donald Trump.
Meanwhile, her presidential rival—who has a 2–1 lead in her home state—spoke at an evangelical conference in Nashville, touting his record on issues vital to conservative Christians during his first term and pledging to proceed in his second term.
Trump pledged to 1,500 attendees on the National Religious Broadcasters (NRB) convention that despite threats from the Left, “nobody will likely be touching the cross of Christ under the Trump administration, I swear to you.”
“Christian voters had an excellent relationship with Nikki and so they liked Nikki, but they do love Trump,” said Chad Connelly, who was on the NRB gathering.
The South Carolina native and former two-term chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party is the founding father of the conservative Christian organization Faith Wins, which involves 16,000 pastors in evangelical voter registration.
Connelly said the thing he hears most from faith leaders is that Trump “did what he said he was going to do … that’s a rare politician. That’s the primary comment.”
Specific policies come up greater than others: Trump’s releasing a listing of potential Supreme Court nominees in 2016 after which nominating three conservative judges to the court, in addition to his move of the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.
But greater than any particular list of issues motivating this election, multiple sources described a deep sense of non-public loyalty that GOP primary voters feel for Trump, something that has intensified along together with his legal troubles.
“People felt like these are political hit jobs,” Connelly said. “Those things are helping him within the weirdest way. I wouldn’t have predicted it. But they’re absolutely helping him. It has brought out a fervor and an excitement. … I’ve never seen [this] depth of support and enthusiasm.”
In 2016, white evangelicals dispersed their votes in South Carolina’s GOP primary: Trump gained 34 percent of the vote, Sen. Ted Cruz gained 26 percent, and Marco Rubio gained 21 percent. Political watchers don’t expect much of a divide this time around.
“There are evangelicals in South Carolina which are somewhat suspicious of Trump and are probably supporting Nikki Haley, or are going to reluctantly support Trump,” Tony Beam, director of church engagement at North Greenville University and policy director for the South Carolina Baptist Convention, told CT. “But I’d say the most important group are those that are probably going to be pretty solidly behind Trump for the first and for president.”
The state has loads of “evangelicals in name only” who’re fervent Trump supporters, Beam said. But others are “in church every Sunday, I serve on committees, I’m serious about my faith–type believers that imagine Trump is the reply.”
Danielle Vinson, a politics and international affairs professor at Furman University in Greenville, South Carolina, has noticed tension inside churches, though she believes the thrill for Trump is more uniform in rural churches in comparison with their urban and suburban counterparts.
In her evangelical church, she’s at times been “very mystified by little old ladies completely rationalizing Trump, but they do,” she said. “But I actually have noticed a small smattering of very vocal opponents to Trump in those exact same congregations. So it’s not a universal love, but I also think there’s more enthusiasm than you may find in other parts of the country.”
More notable divides may fall along socioeconomic lines.
“I do think South Carolina has more of what we might traditionally view evangelical voters to be,” Nicholas Higgins, chair of the political science department at North Greenville University, told CT. “I just think that the knowledge goes to be less useful since it’s getting mixed with other forms of groups.”
Higgins has observed that in his conversations with students or professors, there’s a marked preference for Haley over Trump at times. But when he speaks with blue-collar staff at his church or elsewhere, he’s noticed more support for Trump.
It’s not ubiquitous, he said, but it surely’s more marked than divisions along faith: “I find Christians of upper education are likely to support Haley, Christians with lower education are likely to support Trump. Seculars of upper education are likely to support Haley, seculars of lower education are likely to support Trump. I feel that’s where you’re finding greater variation.”
There are some rumblings that Haley’s reason for powering through, despite the losses, is the potential of a shakeup within the race resulting from her rival’s outstanding issues in state and federal courts. Trump faces 91 felony counts in two state courts and two federal districts, in addition to a civil suit in New York.
There are also states which have filed cases using an obscure provision within the 14th Amendment to argue a legal theory that Trump is ineligible for appearing on the 2024 ballot resulting from his role within the January 6, 2021, US Capitol revolt. It’s not clear how they may rule, though justices seemed skeptical during oral arguments earlier this month that the state could exclude Trump from the ballot in Colorado.
“It’s going to be nigh unattainable for Haley to tug up enough to forestall Trump from getting nearly all of delegates,” Higgins said. But he said her strategy should be to be the following highest delegate holder to point out viability, within the event that Trump’s legal issues take him out of the running.
She could also be hoping, Higgins said, that “the opposite side goes to need to forfeit. And so coming in second, getting the silver medal, then checking out the gold medal winner took a pile of performance-enhancing drugs—you get the gold medal.”
Former state representative Garry Smith told CT he hears from Christian friends who’re opting out of engaging politically in the mean time. “There’s numerous confusion within the church,” he said. But as November draws closer, he believes tension will dissipate between the varied wings of the Republican party for “more concentrate on the target—which is to elect candidates of the party.”
Chip Felkel, a South Carolina native who grew up in what he described as a “deep water” Southern Baptist church and now attends a Methodist church, said he finds it hard to acknowledge the evangelical and Republican circles he grew up in.
“I won’t ever completely understand the connection from the evangelical community with Donald Trump,” Felkel told CT. “The evangelical community—he’s their champion.”
“Within the ‘Trump party,’ they liken him to King David. Some even go to date as a Second Coming, and I do know that’s extreme, but I actually have heard and I’ve read where people think he’s anointed by God to steer their effort,” Felkel said.
He’s worked for multiple Republican campaigns in South Carolina and is a longtime conservative GOP consultant. He’s not related to a campaign this cycle.
But Felkel—in addition to other white Christian voters who’re skeptical of former president Donald Trump—are set to be the minority on this weekend’s South Carolina GOP primary.
“Look, I mean, Trump will win big here. There’s no doubt about that,” Felkel said.
After South Carolina, Michigan holds its contest on February 27.
The next landmark within the election is Super Tuesday, which falls on March 5. Fifteen states will vote, and the result will account for 874 of the obligatory 2,429 Republican delegates. While it won’t be enough for Trump to brush the nomination, Super Tuesday is probably going Haley’s last shot at proving her viability.
